I wasted hours of my life, attempting to argue with someone on the Internet yesterday. When will I learn? They were spreading blatant misinformation. I even shared a Fox News article (gasp!) to show them they were spreading lies. They continued to argue, pointing me to some rando’s Facebook post (of just text) as their “source.” I’m not sure how we move forward in a world where people can be this blatantly, willfully, contentedly ignorant.
This article really hits home. As an oncologist, I’ve seen trust in doctors shift. Patients come in with things they’ve heard on podcasts or read online, and instead of a conversation, it sometimes feels like I have to prove why decades of research and experience still matter. I don’t mind questions. Trust should be earned. But it’s tough when confidence in surface-level knowledge outweighs real expertise. Skepticism is healthy when it leads to learning, but too often it just creates more doubt and confusion.
Maybe it's my engineering training or decades or researching, but it is clear there is very little absolute truth. We keep learning, and much of what we once thought was true we know know is not. Experts, and even whole fields of experts, are sometimes found to be wrong. One reason this happens is because so much is driven by economics instead of knowledge. As the quote goes "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Just about every single thing I read, whether in a blog or a journal article or a history book, I can find another source to either disagree (with valid points), or to bring nuance to the topic. And in nuance usually lies the truth. Nothing is as black and white as people want to think. True knowledge cannot be gained in soundbites because true knowledge is complicated and conflicting and messy. In many cases we don't really know the answer, so we're making educated guesses. And sometimes, it's the "outsiders" who can look at a problem in a new way and see things that the experts didn't.
Very well said. And spoken like a true expert…. Humbly. I would submit that an outsider who does not understand the inside, who then changes it, is a very rare phenomenon.
The best cancer theories and treatments are coming from scientists and doctors who are highly accomplished in other fields, as well as extremely well researched laypersons (as in many years of research, not reading a book or two).
I agree that understanding the inside is crucial. Whereas sometimes being "a part of" the inside is helpful and sometimes harmful.
I encounter the Dunning-Kruger effect almost daily in my practice (I am a dietitian and currently pursuing my PhD), and at the same time, I often feel like I'm on the peak of Mount Stupid when I think or write about quantum biology and other emerging theory... I think the art is to percieve, endure and articulate this uncertainty and this doubt.
It’s ironic that people who are “so certain” are triggered by people questioning certainty. This article unapologetically questions the culture of ignorant certainty. If you have spent anytime with any of my work you would know I question my own certainty first and most of all. My hope is you will do the same.
I struggle with three things in this article. “Experts” are frequently wrong and/or disagree on information and conclusions. I think because there is a lot of conflicting data and information and because “experts” are frequently compromised by their own beliefs, biases, external controls, money, power . . . you name it. There are no perfect “experts,” IMO.
I think there are few things that are truly black and white, especially in the fields of science and psychology. More knowledge, data, and information is constantly coming to light.
What do you mean when you say people believe COVID was a hoax? I’m not trying to start an argument, but I am curious. They don’t believe there was a virus, they think it wasn’t deadly, and/or they were anti- COVID shots, lockdowns, masks?
In terms of COVID being a hoax. There are any number of conspiracy theories that abound on COVID. From it was a hoax, to it was a bioweapon, to Bill Gates & Fauci created in their kitchens, to it was meant to control everyone. When the most likely answer it was an unprecedented global event that the world was unprepared for had no way of predicting how bad it would get, and made multiple predictions and adjustments (some good and some bad in hindsight) and we are still piecing it all together.
Experts are absolutely frequently wrong. True experts know this. It’s the nature of information. You are kinda making the point for me. Only those without true expertise are irked by the process of wisdom. You learn some things, you make assumptions on top of that, you then learn you are wrong. You adjust. You make some progress. You realize you were wrong in other areas. You adjust. The idea that anyone just knows and knowledge is linear is the hallmark of someone who is too ignorant to understand. The nature of expertise is knowing you don’t know and yet being fully engaged in the messy process. Novices are the ones who seem to be irked by this. In terms of COVID let’s not confuse the poor communication of public health (who completely botched multiple aspects of COVID), with the actual experts who were asking all the questions and doing all the work. Only novices pretend experts mean all knowing. Experts mean those in the best position to understand the issues and trained in the problems. Even experts get it wrong, it’s simply the nature of the beast. To not know that is to be the type of ignorant this article is highlighting. As to the claim on COVID not being deadly…it was the 10th leading cause of death in 2023 (76,446 deaths). It was the 4th leading cause in 2022 (245,614 deaths). It was 3rd during the pandemic’s peak in 2020-2021. It killed 1.4 million total.
Just for comparison, the top three causes of death are normally :
1. Heart disease: ~681,000 deaths
2. Cancer: ~613,000 deaths
3. Unintentional injuries: ~222,500 deaths. In terms of the issues around masks (complicated and nuanced), lockdowns (most now agree this was a mistake) and other issues…. The experts have slowly been understanding the full issues which is understandable given and unprecedented global pandemic. What is unwise is to develop an unhealthy disregard for experts, science and institutions just because getting things wrong is part of the process and always has been.
I wasted hours of my life, attempting to argue with someone on the Internet yesterday. When will I learn? They were spreading blatant misinformation. I even shared a Fox News article (gasp!) to show them they were spreading lies. They continued to argue, pointing me to some rando’s Facebook post (of just text) as their “source.” I’m not sure how we move forward in a world where people can be this blatantly, willfully, contentedly ignorant.
This article really hits home. As an oncologist, I’ve seen trust in doctors shift. Patients come in with things they’ve heard on podcasts or read online, and instead of a conversation, it sometimes feels like I have to prove why decades of research and experience still matter. I don’t mind questions. Trust should be earned. But it’s tough when confidence in surface-level knowledge outweighs real expertise. Skepticism is healthy when it leads to learning, but too often it just creates more doubt and confusion.
agreed. We are in strange times indeed
Maybe it's my engineering training or decades or researching, but it is clear there is very little absolute truth. We keep learning, and much of what we once thought was true we know know is not. Experts, and even whole fields of experts, are sometimes found to be wrong. One reason this happens is because so much is driven by economics instead of knowledge. As the quote goes "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Just about every single thing I read, whether in a blog or a journal article or a history book, I can find another source to either disagree (with valid points), or to bring nuance to the topic. And in nuance usually lies the truth. Nothing is as black and white as people want to think. True knowledge cannot be gained in soundbites because true knowledge is complicated and conflicting and messy. In many cases we don't really know the answer, so we're making educated guesses. And sometimes, it's the "outsiders" who can look at a problem in a new way and see things that the experts didn't.
Very well said. And spoken like a true expert…. Humbly. I would submit that an outsider who does not understand the inside, who then changes it, is a very rare phenomenon.
The best cancer theories and treatments are coming from scientists and doctors who are highly accomplished in other fields, as well as extremely well researched laypersons (as in many years of research, not reading a book or two).
I agree that understanding the inside is crucial. Whereas sometimes being "a part of" the inside is helpful and sometimes harmful.
So well said. And without pointing political fingers, though it is sooo tempting. Bravo!
Thank you for this post!
I encounter the Dunning-Kruger effect almost daily in my practice (I am a dietitian and currently pursuing my PhD), and at the same time, I often feel like I'm on the peak of Mount Stupid when I think or write about quantum biology and other emerging theory... I think the art is to percieve, endure and articulate this uncertainty and this doubt.
Agreed. We must know what we think we know with great humility.
Is it ironic that this post seems so certain about people who are certain?
It’s ironic that people who are “so certain” are triggered by people questioning certainty. This article unapologetically questions the culture of ignorant certainty. If you have spent anytime with any of my work you would know I question my own certainty first and most of all. My hope is you will do the same.
I struggle with three things in this article. “Experts” are frequently wrong and/or disagree on information and conclusions. I think because there is a lot of conflicting data and information and because “experts” are frequently compromised by their own beliefs, biases, external controls, money, power . . . you name it. There are no perfect “experts,” IMO.
I think there are few things that are truly black and white, especially in the fields of science and psychology. More knowledge, data, and information is constantly coming to light.
What do you mean when you say people believe COVID was a hoax? I’m not trying to start an argument, but I am curious. They don’t believe there was a virus, they think it wasn’t deadly, and/or they were anti- COVID shots, lockdowns, masks?
In terms of COVID being a hoax. There are any number of conspiracy theories that abound on COVID. From it was a hoax, to it was a bioweapon, to Bill Gates & Fauci created in their kitchens, to it was meant to control everyone. When the most likely answer it was an unprecedented global event that the world was unprepared for had no way of predicting how bad it would get, and made multiple predictions and adjustments (some good and some bad in hindsight) and we are still piecing it all together.
Experts are absolutely frequently wrong. True experts know this. It’s the nature of information. You are kinda making the point for me. Only those without true expertise are irked by the process of wisdom. You learn some things, you make assumptions on top of that, you then learn you are wrong. You adjust. You make some progress. You realize you were wrong in other areas. You adjust. The idea that anyone just knows and knowledge is linear is the hallmark of someone who is too ignorant to understand. The nature of expertise is knowing you don’t know and yet being fully engaged in the messy process. Novices are the ones who seem to be irked by this. In terms of COVID let’s not confuse the poor communication of public health (who completely botched multiple aspects of COVID), with the actual experts who were asking all the questions and doing all the work. Only novices pretend experts mean all knowing. Experts mean those in the best position to understand the issues and trained in the problems. Even experts get it wrong, it’s simply the nature of the beast. To not know that is to be the type of ignorant this article is highlighting. As to the claim on COVID not being deadly…it was the 10th leading cause of death in 2023 (76,446 deaths). It was the 4th leading cause in 2022 (245,614 deaths). It was 3rd during the pandemic’s peak in 2020-2021. It killed 1.4 million total.
Just for comparison, the top three causes of death are normally :
1. Heart disease: ~681,000 deaths
2. Cancer: ~613,000 deaths
3. Unintentional injuries: ~222,500 deaths. In terms of the issues around masks (complicated and nuanced), lockdowns (most now agree this was a mistake) and other issues…. The experts have slowly been understanding the full issues which is understandable given and unprecedented global pandemic. What is unwise is to develop an unhealthy disregard for experts, science and institutions just because getting things wrong is part of the process and always has been.